Group C of Euro 2024 qualifying is going down to the wire, with third-place Ukraine and second-placed Italy locking horns to decide who books their ticket in Germany next summer. Both sides are currently locked on 13 points and are coming off victories, with Ukraine dispatching Malta 3-1 last time out, while Italy emphatically beat North Macedonia 5-2.
After their 2-1 defeat in the reverse in Milan and with H2Hs serving as tie-breakers, the equation is simple for Ukraine who must win if they want to feature at a fourth consecutive European Championships. As a result, Serhiy Rebrov’s men will have to throw everything at Italy here, and while they should take confidence from the fact they’re unbeaten in their last nine matches as the ‘home’ team, winning only three of those could be a concern (D6) ahead of this clash in Germany.
Italy are still assured of a place in the play-offs thanks to their performances in the UEFA Nations League, but manager Luciano Spalletti will surely want to see his side avoid that lottery by getting the job done here. Extending their undefeated nine-game record against Ukraine will ensure that’s the case (W7, D2), with a point enough to secure Italy’s spot in the top two.
If that dominant H2H record wasn’t enough to settle Azzurri fans’ nerves, then their side’s record in European Championship Qualifiers (ECQ) should be, with their two losses to England this campaign being their only defeats in their last 47 ECQ matches (W38, D7). The Euro 2020 champions will be expected to be in Germany to defend their crown one way or another, and reaching the finals would be the Italian’s eighth consecutive Euro finals appearance.
Players to watch: Ukraine will want their good luck charm Artem Dovbyk to fire since they’ve won five of the six international games he’s scored in (D1). Italy might look to Federico Chiesa to land a decisive blow early, with three of his last four international goals coming before half-time.
Hot stat: The half-time result has been replicated at full-time in 16 of Italy’s last 19 matches.
